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Jul 14, 2023
New listings are down a nation-leading 30.3 percent
By Hayden Groves This week, REIWA reported that there are 2,395 houses, 1,461 units and 1,364 vacant lots listed for sale on reiwa.com. This meagre total of 5,220 properties is about 40 percent lower than the same week last year. Meanwhile, sales volumes remain relatively high at 880 last week, unchanged from the corresponding week in 2022. Five years ago, reiwa.com listings numbered 12,417 and there were 29,000 property transactions. Last year, there were 58,000 sales across land, units and houses. Unsurprisingly, this shortage of supply matched with stronger sales volumes leads to one thing – higher prices. The same thing is happening in the rental market. Rental stock hit record highs in January 2018 with 12,000 homes available for lease, last week there 2,123. Rents are rising as a result of constrained supply. The problem of low housing supply for either sale or rent is not confined to the WA market. According to the latest Core Logic data, national listings for dwellings is down 13.2 percent on last year and 28.7 percent below the five-year average. In Perth, total new listings are down a nation-leading 30.3 percent from last year, way below the 18.9 percent average decline. Rental prices are rising at a rapid rate, up 13.4 percent in Perth since last year. Median house rents in Perth have moved from $370 per week in July 2020 to $575 per week today. A decade of relatively flat weekly rents, rapidly rising interest rates (which have risen 35 percent in a year), cost of living pressures and higher migration intake fuelling demand are the core reasons for the current rent price increases. new listings are down a nation-leading 30.3 percent Investors remain cautious about buying in the current fiscal environment and many, faced with spiralling mortgage costs are opting to sell. With 70 percent of all rental homes in Australia owned by persons holding a single property other than their primary home, selling the rental property is often a sensible option is your home mortgage repayments are rising. Chatter about rent freezes, high stamp and land taxes, a wobbly national economy, tenancy risk and yet-to-be tamed inflation disincentivise private investment. The structural nature of our rental housing sector has for generations relied on family investors to supply the market and in the absence of an alternative – such as governments supply more housing – we need thriving investment in housing from ordinary Australians to supply the homes tenants need. Yet, some politicians, advocates and the media have lashed these ordinary investors as being ‘greedy’ or even labelled them ‘dodgy’. Sure, there are some unscrupulous landlords out there – in the tiny minority. But this modern, anti-aspirational rhetoric threatens the fundamental underpinnings of our rental system. The government is unable to supply the $3 trillion worth of rental stock in Australia anytime soon, if that is the aspiration of those looking to undermine private investment in residential property.
Jul 11, 2023
Western Australia remains astonishingly affordable
By Hayden Groves The Real Estate Institute of Australia’s (REIA’s) latest Housing Affordability Report was released last week revealing housing affordability worsened across Australia. As expected, NSW and Victoria remain the least affordable places to buy property with an astonishing 55 percent of a family’s income devoted to meeting the average loan repayment in NSW. In Victoria, 46.5 percent of their hard-earned goes to meeting mortgage commitments. The national average is now 44.9 percent, well above mortgage-stress territory. We are fast approaching record levels of housing un-affordability. Happily, Western Australia remains astonishingly affordable with 34.5 percent of our average weekly family income of $2,471 covering the average loan of $478,236. In contrast, mortgage holders in NSW hold average loans of $731,410 with an average family income of $2,373. As expected, housing affordability has deteriorated over time declining 14.2 percent over twenty years with much of that decline (11.6 percent) occurring in the past five years. Tasmania’s decline in affordability tops the chart with a 21.7 percent fall in affordability over twenty years. Once more, WA’s affordability performance remains appealing to home buyers and investors with a modest 7.4 percent deterioration in affordability in twenty years. Rental affordability is a hot-button topic both politically and in the media. With the average tenant across Australia paying 23 percent of their income on rent, leasing remains significantly more affordable than property ownership. Over the past twenty years, home ownership affordability has deteriorated at a rate almost 18 times faster than rental affordability. Whilst property ownership affordability has rapidly declined over the past five years, national rental affordability has been remarkably stable, worsening by a mere 0.8 percent in twenty years. Rental affordability has, in fact, improved over the past five years by 0.7 percent. Ten years ago, it was less affordable to rent a home in Australia than it is today. In WA, rental affordability has deteriorated by 3.9 percent in five years, but barely changed across the fifteen years prior to 2018. Whilst rental affordability is stable, median rents continue to climb with lack of housing supply the main contributor to the increases. A potent combination of low investor activity, rising interest rates, stamp duties, land taxes, insufficient social housing, tenant-friendly tenancy laws, increasing population, construction industry blockages and short-stay accommodation continue to conspire against maintaining a reasonable supply of rental homes. REIA’s figures show that rental affordability across Australia has barely changed over the past twenty years, proving that markets are cyclical. Whilst we know things are tough for tenants right now, once we get more supply into the market, balance will return.
Jul 3, 2023
Data Gurus: Less Pain, More Gain
By Hayden Groves Data gurus Core Logic produce a quarterly report aptly named the Pain and Gain, providing insight into the profitability of property sales across Australia. The report assess each property sale from its previous selling price in order to determine if the property was sold on a positive or negative margin. It doesn’t take into account the holding (interest payable, land taxes, rates, etc.) or purchasing costs such as stamp duty. The losses or ‘pains’ could therefore be worse than reported. Looking at the figures, it’s unsurprising that when assessed over a ten year period, Perth’s property market has had its fair share of pain during that time. Since the market peak of 2014, the proportion of properties sold for profit steadily declined from 95 percent to near 50 percent by late 2019. Usefully, Core Logic splits the data into detached houses and units with Perth houses performing significantly better than units since 2013. For houses, the portion of profit-making sales on a rolling quarter basis back in 2013 through to early 2016 held steady at 95 percent. It steadily fell thereafter to reach 60 percent April 2019. The market must have been dire for 40 percent of all houses sold in mid 2019 selling for less than their previous sale price. The numbers are even bleaker for units for a period in mid-2020 where only 40 percent of units sold realised a profit. During this ‘peak-COVID’ period we had rental moratoriums, a great deal of uncertainty and a decade of zero growth. Investors fled the market in large numbers, with – as it turns out – 60 percent of them willing to take a loss on the investment in the process. Roll forward to now and unit sales still lag behind houses in terms of profit-making. Perth’s market is still in recovery across the unit sector with only 64 percent of sales profit-making, well below the national average. Comparatively, profit-making house sales represented 94 percent of all houses sold last quarter. The discrepancy here can be attributed to the natural inclination of larger households to sell less frequently coupled with units being more favoured by investors, making them a more liquid asset. For Fremantle, 17 percent of all sales in the March quarter sold for a median value loss of $51,500. Inversely, 83 percent of Fremantle sellers made a median gain of $171,500 across a hold period of 8.9 years when they sold in the March quarter. In Cockburn, the median loss was less at 13 percent at $40,000 with 87 percent of sellers making a tidy $130,000 median profit if holding the property for about 9 years. Overall, the trend for Perth property being sold at profit is upwards as property values continue to grow. Values are up 1.9 percent across April and May this year with the likelihood of further gains adding to the recovery in profit-making sales as the year progresses.
Jun 16, 2023
Sellers are holding the competitive advantage in the market
By Hayden Groves One of the major problems with the property market across the nation right now is the blockages caused by short housing supply. Would-be sellers - whether up or down-sizing – are ‘stuck’ because they are struggling to find property that meets their needs and with short rental supply too, the usual ‘fall-back’ of renting for a period is also problematic. With only around 5,000 properties listed for sale on reiwa.com buying opportunities are limited considering there were around 14,000 listings only four years ago. However, if you are considering selling your property, it's worth considering bringing your property to market sooner rather than later. With interest rates rising and the usual spring listing rush not far away, more supply could come into the market. Sellers are holding the competitive advantage in the market. That said, it remains likely supply will remain below average levels for some time, particularly given anticipated increases in migration, piling on pressure on the demand side. Buyers remain hungry for quality property despite recent interest rate rises with sales numbers running at about 925 per week metro wide. The Reserve Bank’s rapid increases in official cash rates have added 35 percent to average mortgages in 12 months, or about $1,000 extra per month for an average mortgage. This is beginning to hurt those borrowers who took on low interest fixed rate mortgages in 2021, many of whom have properties in the outer suburbs. Supply in these markets is likely to rise if these borrowers can’t meet these higher repayments. For property owners in and around Fremantle, coming to market now gives sellers the opportunity to buy closer to a settlement period that will align with more property coming to market in spring, avoiding the need for a ‘double move’. Sellers are holding the competitive advantage in the market so there’s opportunity to negotiate outcomes that include things like an extended settlement period or ‘rent back’ options. Importantly, in this market selling and buying within the same time-frame is preferrable as property values continue to rise, choice remains constrained and investors turn their attention to our under-valued market.
May 26, 2023
Perth Market Breaking Through
By Hayden Groves Perth’s property market has had its fair share of ebbs and flows over the years with market downturn the major feature of our market in the past decade. The years of 2014 to 2019 saw Perth property values drift back for more than 60 months, with house prices shedding 20 percent over that time. This came off the back of two sharper recent market declines in 2010-11 and 2008-9 where our market lost 10.3 percent and 12.1 percent respectively. Recent price rises off the back of record low interest rates during the peak-COVID years were challenged once rates began to rise and high inflation began to bite, had abated by a mere 0.9 percent and are once again on an upward trajectory. The price gains across Perth (up 1.6 percent in 12 months) have been concentrated to the more affordable regions, including Mandurah (up 8.7 percent in 12 months), Kwinana (8.4 percent), Rockingham (7.5 percent) and Armadale (5.9 percent) in the top four. At the other end of the scale, affluent Claremont is still recovering with a -3.8 percent price drop in 12 months. Fremantle is holding steady with prices back where they were a year ago. Buyer choice is diminishing. Compared to east coast markets, the combined capitals are off 7.4 percent over the past 12 months with Sydney down 9.2 percent, Melbourne 8 percent lower and Brisbane down 9. 5 percent. Adelaide is up 0.6 percent putting Perth at the top of the capital city list with 1.6 percent growth. So where to from here? The major contributor to Perth’s property surge is the lack of housing supply. Normally, when interest rates rise and inflationary pressures curb spending, property values pull back. This time, the underlying lack of supply and migration rising has trumped those macro economic factors that would see values fall. Demand is high whilst listing supply continues to drop. Total listing supply is a huge 40 percent below the decade average and continues to trend down. The measure of new listings coming to market is 22.9 percent below the volumes coming to market last year and active listings across WA are 39.5 percent under the five-year average. Meanwhile, sales volumes remain above average levels with about 1,000 sales completed each week. Buyer choice is diminishing. Market conditions point to continued improvement in the Perth market which remains the most affordable of the state capitals as median house prices here reach $599,240, still a long way adrift from Sydney’s $1,253,759. Rents continue to rise too with Perth’s vacancy rate the lowest in the nation at 0.6 percent for houses and 0.8 percent for units. Rents are now at a median value of $592 per week for houses, $516 per week for units. There are no definitive reasons to be found that suggests Perth’s property values will fall in the short term. Thanks to Core Logic for the excellent, comprehensive data set.
May 5, 2023
Rents Up, But Only Now
By Hayden Groves It is widely known that rental prices across Australia are rapidly rising with many tenants struggling to find affordable accommodation. Vacancy rates nationally are hovering around 1 percent and falling. In Perth, REIWA reports a vacancy rate of 0.7 percent where a balanced market would typically have vacancy rates as about 3.5 percent. There is no doubt, as confirmed by the federal Housing Minister, Julie Collins this week, that the root cause of rising rental costs is lack of supply. The Prime Minister, in an effort to get his $10b Housing Australia Future Fund through the Senate by placating the Greens, announced state and territory Housing Ministers will get together and discuss ‘renters’ rights’. rents in Perth have risen by $9 per week per year At national approach to residential tenancies is, in itself, not a bad idea but any move to introduce additional regulation that disincentivises supply of housing, would make the rental crisis worse. As previously mentioned in this column, private investors supply 27 percent of all rented homes in Australia. The government provides 3 percent and the rest is owner-occupied. Investors will only ‘buy and supply’ if there is enough incentive to do so. Remove that incentive and the government will have to supply the housing shortfall – an implausible task. The property owner takes on all the risks and costs of the property and anticipates a reward of capital gain down the track. In an effort to bring into balance the naturally superior rights of the property owner, tenancy laws here and across Australia are moderately tipped in favour of the tenant. But tip that advantage too far and investors sell out, leaving a supply shortage and rising rents. This is exactly what is unfolding right now in most cities across the nation. Locally, median house rents have risen 19.8 percent in a year – a substantial gain. However, policy makers that may be considering panicked policy responses that make matters worse, ought to reflect on the past decade. The reality is rents in Perth are only now catching up from a decade of flat or falling rents. In May 2013, median house rents were $460 per week. Nine years later, median house rents were $460 per week. That’s not a typo. Rents had drifted to $370 per week by May 2017 and stayed stagnant through to May 2020. If averaged across the past decade, rents in Perth have risen by $9 per week per year. Perth is becoming an attractive destination for property investors with median house prices at $560,000 and rents offering strong yields and solid returns. Tenants should welcome that, giving them the opportunity to find more affordable rental homes as supply begins to rise. Government could do their bit too by looking for incentives to encourage more investors into the market.
Apr 28, 2023
Greens to Push Rents Higher
By Hayden Groves Greens’ leader Adam Bandt’s impassioned address at the National Press Club earlier this week, demanded the government immediately impose a rent freeze across the nation. This is on top of equally impractical Greens policy such as imposing on developers a minimum 25 percent of all large apartment developments be set aside as affordable social housing. Last time I looked, it is the private investor market that supplies 89 percent of all rental homes in the nation. The government provides 11 percent. If seems obvious that if you disincentive private investors (with things like rent freezes), investors will stop providing enough houses for renters. This leads to shorter supply (investors will sell) which pushes rents even higher. This is exactly what is unfolding across the nation right now. Supply is the core of the issue; the rest is mere tinkering. you can’t magic more housing supply out of thin air Calling for an end to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts (another Greens policy) would demolish the current rental housing system, causing a rental crisis far worse than currently experienced. The Greens say they want solutions to address the rental crisis ‘right now’. Well, you don’t and simply can’t solve it by turning on the very people that supply the houses; you can’t magic more housing supply out of thin air if all your policies are designed to whack investors. Unless, of course, the aim is to have no private investors at all, which would cost taxpayers a mere $3 trillion – the value of rental homes in Australia. The Greens have also called on more government-built housing, something desperately needed. Yet they refuse to back the $10b Housing Australia Future Fund which aims to deliver 30,000 more affordable homes, blocking it in the Senate. To get more supply in the market immediately, you could start with stamp duty reform. Imagine offering a stamp duty rebate for investors that offered property at a below-market rent that guaranteed a certain reasonable return with fixed moderate annual rent increases. Investors would buy and supply the market. Treasurer Jim Chalmers is on the record as a supporter of reforming stamp duty; that hideous, unfair tax that stifles economic growth and impacts affordability. Everyone from the Henry Tax Review through to the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) agree with what real estate agents have always known; that stamp duty is a significant barrier to property ownership and rental affordability and is an insidious, transaction-killing tax that should be reformed. Stamp duty reform doesn’t just help renters, it helps buyers too. NHFIC CEO, Nathan Dal Bon has advocated the benefits of a broad-based land tax as an alternate to stamp duty, stating that a typical household would be better off paying land tax on a median priced property than transfer duty. As an example, a household in NSW would have to pay a broad-based land tax for more than fourteen years to be worse off which is greater than the 12.4 year average holding period of a property. There is no avoiding that the only way to address rental affordability is by increasing supply and unhelpful policies that seek to diminish supply rather than incentivise it is counter-intuitive madness.